The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) said the recession could push unemployment close to 3 million people before the economy can begin to recover. And that’s assuming any new major global business developments don’t happen in the next 4-6 quarters.

John Philpott, the CIPD’s chief economist, said in its annual Barometer Report:

By the end of 2009 the number of people unemployed and actively seeking work will have increased to 2.8 million, one million above the autumn 2008 figure. The first few months of the year are likely to be the worst for almost two decades. Our current expectation, based on available survey evidence and employer soundings, is that the number of redundancies will jump sharply in the early months of 2009, once employers take stock of the economic outlook. The period between New Year and Easter is likely to be the worst for redundancies since 1991.

UK’s retailers have been closing down or facing severe financial pressure. Retail business is a great indicator of the ground level health of an economy, and therefore it is a worrying sign.

• The CIPD’s warning came as another British retailer - children’s clothing shop Adams - fell into administration.
• The demise of Adams, which employs about 2,000 staff, follows that of other nationwide retailers including the chain store Woolworths, the music chain Zavvi, tea and coffee outlet Whittard, and menswear group The Officer’s Club.
• Woolworths collapsed into administration in November 2007 and all its stores would close by 5th Jan 2009, with the loss of 27,000 jobs.

The CIPD also conducted a survey of 2,600 workers and found that those employees who keep their jobs expect to have their pay frozen or even cut in 2009.

Some 28 per cent do not expect a pay rise in 2009, while 26 per cent think their pay rise will be lower than in 2008. Only 11 per cent are expecting a higher wage increase than last year and two per cent expect a pay cut.

Against this backdrop, employers will need to work hard to find new ways to motivate their employees to perform. Targeting pay increases to reward superior performance, making intelligent use of non-financial rewards, and targeted investment in training and development are all ways of making limited budgets go further.

The business is upbeat, given the strong economic environment of Europe. There are thousands of new jobs everyday, and in 2007 it was fairly common to get your first job within a few weeks of search. But there are signs that the job market will be difficult in 2008. This site will share whatever opportunities arise in out London Business Network.

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